Forecastr is a platform built by Chistats to help fund managers and investment managers deliver superior performance and risk-adjusted returns to their customers.

ChiStats is a AI and Data Science company that has done work for the defence sector and for global manufacturing and mining giants in the area of leveraging AI for their weapons and products/processes.

Forecastr comprises multiple products. As of now our product for very short term (a few hours to a few days but not a few weeks) called Forecastr AI.It is in the soft launch stage. A few offerings under this product are currently live. These are the Hourly and Daily Forecasters for the NSE Nifty Index. These are particularly useful in the Futures and Options market. More such offerings under the Forecastr AI product will be made live soon. Our other products under Forecastr which are Sentiment AI and Portfolio AI will be launching in the coming months. These will be more suitable for long-term investors.

Forecastr does not cater to the needs of retail investors. It is meant for investors with larger investment corpuses and with more tolerance to risk and an interest in a wider range of instruments than typical retail investors.

Artificial intelligence (AI) refers to the simulation of human intelligence in machines that are programmed to think like humans. They can do this 24 hrs a day and 365 days a week at speeds much faster than humans and also eliminate any emotional biases which humans will have. Hence AI is more suited to structured, mathematical, and analytical tasks like stock markets. Forecastr leverages the same AI which is used in Military and Defense technologies to create tools which will help investors get better returns.

The Daily and Hourly Forecaster are a suite of AI programs which study market trends of the instrument and create complex multi - dimensional patterns. They look for self similarity and self affinity and use reward and punishment models to forecast future behavior of these instruments. They do these forecasts for a time 1 hr ahead and for 1 day ahead. As an example at 10:30 a.m. IST the Hourly Forecaster makes a forecast for the behavior of the Nifty 50 between 10:30 and 11:30 and so on. The Daily Forecaster follows a similar but more resilient process to obtain a daily forecast for the behavior of the instrument. As an example, the Daily Forecaster makes a forecast at 9:30 a.m. IST for the behavior of the Nifty 50 for the current day. The Forecasters use multiple learning techniques so as to balance the learning from their forecasting experience while at the same time not getting caught into the trap of applying old and outdated learning to new regimes and environments.

These forecasts need to be understood in 3 different ways.

Directional Accuracy - If the forecast says that a certain parameter is going to move in a certain direction with respect to another parameter, then what is the chance that it moves that way. Example of Directional Accuracy – The forecaster says that the current period High for the Instrument will move upwards as compared to the Previous Period High and the actual movement is in the same direction - What is the chance of that happening? That chance is very high.

Quantum Accuracy - Each forecasted movement is classified into 3 bands - A weak movement, A medium movement and a strong movement. What each of these bands mean in exact quantity terms is given on the respective forecast pages. Example of Quantum Accuracy - If the Forecaster says that the movement in a particular direction is going to be a strong movement then what is the chance that the movement is in the same direction and a strong one. What is the chance of that happening? That chance is moderate.

Band 3 Accuracy - Most profits will be made when there is a Band 3 movement. If the Forecaster forecasts a Band 3 movement, then the chance that the Directional Accuracy will be high is called the Band 3 Accuracy. This is the ideal participation zone. This chance is very high.

Use these forecasts responsibly. Understand your risks. Use them to sharpen your existing trading or buying and selling strategies for various instruments so that your existing strategies and trades give you more profit and less loss.